August 14, 2007

Who needs whom? An acid test!

There is a big debate over India becoming an IT super-power. Every few days I will meet an over-excited guy who is impressed with the growth of Indian IT companies an think that they will take over the world soon!

Let us do an acid test to determine if this is true!

Let us consider a hypothetical scenario that India & the USA are no more allies in economic growth. Let us further consider that both countries have imposed trade restrictions and sanctions on the each other!

Now, the USA does not have access to a big English-speaking pool of talent to develop their superior software at a lower cost.  That’s a big blow. Will the USA survive this? I think they can. There are other developing economies like Brazil, China, Taiwan, etc. which can fill in the gap (initially they may be not as good). So overall they will have a tough time.

Now, consider that India does not have access to products and technologies developed and patented by US based companies. What will happen? Life without Microsoft products, Oracle databases, Google, etc.

Think. Think harder.

Possibly we cannot think of such a scenario! It is beyond our imagination.

This means that India, as an economy is dependent on the technologies and products developed by US companies and not the other way around as many software outsourcing companies think (and as their CEOs will debate with me at length).

So, India works as an "employee" and/or "self employed entity" for US - the "businessman" and/or "investor" (if I have to go by the definition of Robert T. Kiyosaki of Rich Dad Poor Dad fame). This means that Indian IT economy at this point is not "financially free" and is totally dependent on the "investor" who controls the game. It will be very difficult to change the scenario, unless, Indians stop day dreaming of the "IT super power status" and get out of the "luxury bed of benefits and perks" and start working for themselves.

Now we know - who needs whom!

 

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